9 May 2018

The fall-out from Trump's decision

Larison, writing for The American Conservative, does a nice job of summarizing the effects of Trump's recent decision to renege on the nuclear agreement with Iran. I quote the final three paragraphs:

Iranian hard-liners will be pleased by Trump’s decision, since it lets them claim vindication and accuse their domestic opponents of making the mistake of trusting the U.S. Hard-liners in the U.S. and Iran feed off of each other, and when they are in the ascendant in one country it boosts hard-liners in the other. Armed conflict between U.S. forces and Iran and its proxies is going to become more likely as a result of this decision, and that could escalate into a larger war faster than anyone expects. Once the U.S. is out of the deal, it won’t be long before we hear the usual drumbeat for military action against Iran.
Reneging on the nuclear deal doesn’t serve any American interests and does significant harm to several of them. Other states will be less willing to trust the U.S. to honor its obligations. That will raise the costs of every negotiation the U.S. conducts with other governments during the current administration. Every government that cooperated with the U.S. to secure the deal will remember how Trump simply threw away a major diplomatic achievement for the sake of spite and ideology, and they will be less inclined to cooperate with Washington the next time their help is needed.
Withdrawing from the JCPOA is a huge unforced error and self-inflicted wound whose full costs we won’t realize until later, and it represents a serious setback to the cause of nonproliferation. Trump is walking away from a deal that got the U.S. almost everything it wanted at virtually no cost, and he is doing it mainly because it allows him to repudiate his predecessor’s work. It is a perfect example of putting petty self-interest and pique ahead of the interests of the United States, and it has absolutely nothing to do with putting America first.


CyberKitten said...

Just when you thought he couldn't possibly get more stupid....

Oh, and I disagree on one thing in Larison's comments. It won't just raise the costs of every negotiation the U.S. conducts with other governments during the *current* administration - but for every *future* administration too. Plus with N Korea now trust a single word out of Trump's mouth over any nuclear 'deal'?

Not Good!

VV said...

I agree with CK. How will any country ever trust our agreements again when we break them so easily and nobody does anything to stop the moron in chief.

Karlo said...

With the U.S. contributing to constant proxy wars all around the Middle East, tearing up this agreement with Iran is particularly hypocritical. I can't believe that Trump is giving away U.S. credibility so cheaply. This is very bad news.