22 September 2015

Carson and Fiorina will probably keep rising as Trump falls

Some recent analysis of Trump voters by David Brady, a polling expert, suggests that Trump has nowhere to go except down whereas Carson and Fiorina stand to benefit as the Republican race drags on. Jeb Bush's failure to do better in spite of all the early cash still surprises me. Brady's concluding points:

First, that most of his support comes from voters already following the race and not from newly inspired voters.
Second, his campaign drew from both the front-runners and the second-tier candidates and hurt Senator Cruz among the front-runners and Governor Perry among the second-tier candidates the most.
Third, his support comes from across the full range of Republican identifiers, but is slightly higher among those who are less well educated, earn less than $50,000 and are slightly older.
Fourth, tea party respondents were for Trump at slightly lower levels than the totals for Cruz and Fiorina, but higher than for the rest of the field.
Fifth, his candidacy has a large downside in that, of the entire field, he has by far the most unfavorables and he is not the second choice of very many Republicans; thus, he cannot expect to see a leap forward as other candidates drop out.
Carson first and then probably Fiorina look to gain the most as other candidates drop out of the race.

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